Maui's home market is steadier than the headlines suggest
Sales are rebounding, the typical home is holding its value, and the inventory wave has crested. Here's what the latest REALTORS® Association of Maui data actually shows — in four charts.
June 2026 vs. June 2025, single family homes, all Maui MLS areas.
If you only read the headline numbers, Maui's single family market looks like it's falling: the average sales price dropped 15.7% in June. But averages on Maui are misleading — with only 60 to 80 homes closing in a typical month, a couple of eight-figure estate sales in Wailea or Paia can swing the figure by hundreds of thousands of dollars in either direction. The median price, which tracks the home in the middle of the market, tells a very different story: up 4.4% in June to $1,356,975, and down just 2.3% over the trailing twelve months. The typical Maui home has essentially held its value through two turbulent years.
Buyers are coming back
The clearest signal in this report is demand. June closed sales reached 78 — the strongest June in three years — and pending sales, which preview the next sixty to ninety days of closings, jumped 41.7% to 68. Year-to-date, closings are up 4.3% and pendings up 9.4%. New listings also rose sharply in June (+27.8%), but that reads as sellers responding to renewed activity rather than a rush for the exits: total new listings for the year are actually slightly below last year.
The inventory wave has crested
Inventory grew 37% in 2024 and another 27% in 2025 — the kind of buildup that usually precedes price cuts. That buildup has now stalled. Active listings stand at 468, only 4.5% above last year, and months supply of inventory has been pinned between 8.0 and 8.5 for a full year. Eight months of supply still favors buyers on paper — it's roughly double the level of the 2021–2022 seller's market — which is why negotiating conditions remain soft: sellers received 95.8% of list price in June versus 99% two years ago, and homes still take over four months to sell on average. But supply is no longer building pressure, and demand is rising into it.
A tale of two islands: neighborhood results vary widely
Island-wide statistics hide a sharp geographic split. The upcountry and central districts where most residents buy are firm — Pukalani, Kahului, and Makawao all posted year-to-date median gains, and Kihei's median slipped only modestly while its sales volume jumped 28%. The correction is concentrated at the resort and luxury end of the market: West Maui's Kaanapali and the Wailea/Makena corridor show the largest median declines, driven partly by which homes are trading rather than uniform price cuts (Wailea sales volume actually doubled). The one local market worth watching is Wailuku — the island's busiest district — where the median is down 15.1%.
What this means for you
If you're buying: conditions still lean your way. Eight months of supply, four-month marketing times, and a 4-point gap between list and sale price mean there's room to negotiate — but the window may be narrowing as pending sales accelerate.
If you're selling: pricing to the market matters more than ever. Well-priced homes are meeting a growing pool of buyers, but the days of naming your price are over — June sellers received 95.8% of list on average, and overpriced listings are the ones sitting past 130 days.
If you're watching from the sidelines: the typical home's value has been remarkably stable. The dramatic numbers you may have seen quoted are averages distorted by the luxury market, or belong to the condo segment — a very different story we cover separately.
The bottom line
Maui's residential market spent 2024 and 2025 absorbing higher interest rates, a doubling of inventory, and the uncertainty that followed the 2023 fires. Mid-2026 finds it in balance: the typical home holding near $1.26–1.36 million, sales volume rising for the first time in three years, and supply steady rather than swelling. Affordability remains the island's structural challenge — the median household can qualify for only about a third of the median home price — but for the market itself, the direction of travel has quietly turned from softening to stabilizing.
